Britain will slide into a year-long recession should it leave the European Union without a deal with Brussels, the government's official forecaster said Thursday. "The UK enters a year-long recession in the fourth quarter of 2019" should Britain depart the bloc on October 31 with a "no-deal, no-transition Brexit", the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in a key report. State borrowing was meanwhile forecast to balloon by about £30 billion ($37 billion, 33 billion euros) per year from 2020 on sliding tax receipts, should Britain default to the World Trade Organization (WTO) tariff system.

(Bloomberg) -- Parliament is gearing up for a knife-edge vote on a measure to prevent the next prime minister suspending Parliament to pursue a no-deal Brexit. As pro-EU ministers weigh up how they will vote, the government’s fiscal watchdog published new forecasts of the economic damage a chaotic exit would bring.Key Developments:House of Commons votes later on Thursday on measures to prevent a no-deal Brexit. House of Lords beefed up the legislation on Wednesday and a new amendment that aims to further strengthen Parliament’s hand will also go to a vote.Tory whips tell MPs to vote against amendments that aim to prevent no-deal as they seek to contain rebellionJustice Secretary David Gauke declined to say earlier how he will vote on ThursdayOBR says no-deal would push economy into recession and increase debt. GDP would fall 2% by end-2020The pound rose 0.4%At Least One Minister Planning To Rebel (11:45 a.m.)At least one minister opposed to a no-deal Brexit is planning to rebel against the government and abstain in a vote on amendments to the Northern Ireland Bill on Thursday afternoon.Theresa May’s government has ordered ministers to vote against the proposed measure (see 10:20 a.m.) and would normally be expected to discipline a minister who goes against the party line.May: No-Deal Blocking Amendment is Unhelpful (11:20 a.m.)Theresa May’s office offered only mild criticism of the amendment to the Northern Ireland Bill that’s aimed at stopping a no-deal Brexit (see 11 a.m.) -- fueling speculation that some minister’s may take the risk of rebelling against the government in Thursday afternoon’s vote.“We have been very clear that the purpose of the bill is to ensure the continuation of vital public services,’’ May’s spokesman James Slack told reporters in London at his regular morning briefing.The plan to require ministers to report on progress every two weeks -- really a device to stop the government from suspending parliament -- “risks being counterproductive to the overarching aim,’’ Slack said.Benn Amendment Selected for Vote (11 a.m.)An amendment drafted by Labour MP Hilary Benn that aims to strengthen legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit has been selected for a vote, according to three people familiar with the situation.The amendment has some cross-party backing and builds on a measure to stop the next prime minister suspending Parliament to push through a no-deal Brexit.Irish PM Says Must Avoid Hard Border (10:45 a.m.)Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he’ll meet the new U.K. premier, and is open to considering whether Britain has any workable solutions to avoid a hardening of the Irish border after Brexit. Speaking to RTE Radio, Varadkar said that while he’s not closing the door on compromise, what’s important is the end goal of avoiding the return of checkpoints on what will be the EU’s new land frontier with the U.K.“If there are proposals that they have that genuinely achieve the same outcome, then we have to listen to them,” he said.MPs Seek to Force Parliament to Sit if Prorogued (10:25 a.m.)Labour’s Hilary Benn has submitted an amendment that would require Parliament to sit even if it has been suspended -- or prorogued.It builds on an amendment inserted by the House of Lords, and would force the government to recall Parliament if prorogued to sit on specific days.Crucially, a number of Conservatives have added their names to Benn’s amendment, suggesting there’s appetite for rebellion. They’re all former ministers: Alistair Burt, Ed Vaizey, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Philip Lee, Oliver Letwin and Guto Bebb.Tories Told to Vote vs Measures to Stop No-Deal (10:20 a.m.)Conservative whips have told lawmakers they must vote against amendments that aim to prevent the next prime minister suspending Parliament to pursue a no-deal exit, according to a person familiar with the situation.No-Deal Would Knock Britain into Recession (9:50 a.m.)A chaotic exit from the EU would push Britain into recession, and GDP would be 2% lower by the end of 2020, according to new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.A no-deal departure would increase borrowing,and hit asset prices, including a sharp decline in the pound.The fiscal watchdog said it hadn’t used the most pessimistic of no-deal scenarios to come up with those forecasts.“That most benign version is not the version that is being talked about by prominent Brexiteers,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond said. “So I greatly fear the impact on our economy and our public finances of the kind of no-deal Brexit that is realistically being discussed now.”Parliament Wants Updated BOE Brexit Analysis (9:50 a.m.)As the Conservative leadership candidates argue over how to handle Brexit, the Treasury Committee has asked the Bank of England to update its economic analysis of various scenarios. The original analysis was published in late 2018, and was heavily criticized by pro-Brexit lawmakers. For a reminder of those scenarios, click here.Treasury Committee Chair Nicky Morgan said she wants Parliament to be “as informed as possible as it considers key decisions about the future of our country.”Hunt Warns Against ‘Gung-Ho’ Brexit Approach (8:30 a.m.)Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt warned that rival Boris Johnson’s “head-strong, gung-ho” approach to Brexit risks triggering a general election before Oct. 31 if Parliament votes to take a no-deal divorce off the table.Hunt, who said momentum is moving in his direction in the race to be Tory leader, accused the EU of not being “rational” in its approach to Brexit talks, and said they’ve treated it too much as a political issue.Hunt, who conceded a no-deal split would have economic consequences, said that if he became prime minister, he would seek to persuade his Irish counterpart to rethink his support for the border backstop arrangement -- the measure in the Brexit deal designed to keep the border open in the event the issue is not dealt with by a future trade deal.“The backstop isn’t going to happen, it’s failed to get through Parliament three times, it’s never going to get through Parliament -- do you want to find a solution or not,” Hunt said he would tell Leo Varadkar. “We need to find a different way to do it.”Barnier: U.K. Would Face No-Deal ‘Consequences’ (8:10 a.m.)Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said the U.K. would “have to face the consequences” of a no-deal split from the bloc, and said member states have “never been impressed” with British threats to leave without an agreement.In an interview for a BBC TV documentary to be broadcast on Thursday, Barnier said the bloc is ready to discuss alternative arrangements for the Irish border -- as set out in the agreement struck by Theresa May -- but needs “time, we need certainty, we also need rationality” in the discussions. “We cannot play a game.” Technical solutions are not yet ready to deal with, for example, the issue of live animals crossing the border, he said.He was also scathing about British politicians who talk about leaving the EU as being like quitting a golf club. “The EU is not a club, the EU is a political, economic, legal construction for 60 years,” he said. “Leaving the EU means so many consequences, human, social, legal, technical, financial, economic -- nobody should underestimate the consequences.”Gauke Won’t Say If He’ll Back Brexit Amendment (7:15 a.m.)Justice Secretary David Gauke said he doesn’t yet know how he will vote on an amendment intended to prevent a future prime minister from suspending Parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit.“I’ll have to see what the precise amendments are, and we’re hearing what the whipping will be and the arguments on that, so I’m not in position to necessarily say,” Gauke, who is expected to lose his job after the new prime minister is announced next week, told BBC Radio 4. “At a crucial point in this country’s history that Parliament should not be able to sit, should not be able to express its opinion and its will, would be outrageous.”Gauke has said he would resign if a future prime minister -- expected to be Boris Johnson -- insisted on a no-deal divorce from the EU. Johnson has refused to rule out suspending Parliament to force through such a split, which is not backed by a majority of MPs.Gauke and Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond are shaping up to be influential and disruptive backbench rebels once there is a change of leader. There has been speculation some ministers may quit to vote against the government, and Gauke’s comments will add fuel to the theory.Earlier:Boris Johnson Says U.S.-U.K. Trade Deal Won’t Be Forged QuicklyPound Jolted Out of Summer Slumber as No-Deal Brexit Din GrowsBrexit Bulletin: Neutralizing the Next PM\--With assistance from Charlotte Ryan, Thomas Penny, Fergal O'Brien and Dara Doyle.To contact the reporters on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net;Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, ;Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, Stuart BiggsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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